Softball forecast: Chance at repeats tougher, but attainable

April 27, 2012 by Les Willsey, AZPreps365


The state softball playoffs begin Saturday (April 28) for Division I and Division II and Wednesday May 2 for Division III and IV. Defending champs and near champs from a year ago figure to be in the thick of things again.

In Division I that means Red Mountain and Basha, the two title-combatants in 5A-I a year ago. At least one of Red Mountain or Basha has advanced to the semifinals or finals each year since 2006 -- the first year the double-elimination format was introduced at state. Basha won titles in 2008 and 2009; Red Mountain in 2006, 2010 and 2011. Basha is seeded No. 1 this year and Red Mountain is No. 2. Both teams can hit, have outstanding pitching although Red Mountain has a deeper staff.

Slipping in with a No. 4 seed and a steady teams all season is Gilbert. With freshman Lynsey Duncan stepping in for graduated sister, Michelle, the Tigers are angling to go further than the final four this year. They split two games with Basha and Red Mountain. No. 3 seed Xavier is a capable team, but ran into trouble down the stretch losing to Basha, Chaparral and Horizon. Horizon is a dangerous team at No. 7. The other seeds in teh top eight are No. 5 Mountain Ridge, No. 7 Cibola and No. 8 Centennial. Despite a No. 18 seed and having to win its final three games to qualify, Mesa Mountain View can't be discounted with Val Kaff in the circle. The Toros are one of only three teams to beat Red Mountain.

The Division II tournament is home to one defending champ, Canyon del Oro, which won the 4A-I title last year. The Dorados are led by Stanford-bound outfielder  Kayla Bonstrom, possessor of one superb and powerful swing. The top-seed is once-beaten Sunrise Mountain, guided by ace left-hander Taylor Nowlin.

Canyon del Oro, the No. 2 seed,  will be challenged by Sunrise Mountain and last year's 5A-II runner-up Ironwood Ridge (No. 3), which lost on a last-inning home run last year to Deer Valley. The Nighthawks are led by pitcher Makayla McAdams and a host of D-I signees, including Robin Landrith (Baylor), Erin Satterfield (North Carolina) and McAdams (New Mexico State). CDO and Ironwood Ridge split two games during the regular season.

A few teams that could stir up trouble for the top seeds are No. 14 Sahuaro, which may get a shot at Ironwood Ridge in the second round if it gets past Raymond Keliis first in the opening round;  Paradise Valley, led by sophomore hurler Mariah Valencia; Casa Grande, paced by pitcher Kim Myers and Shelby Pacheco and Desert Edge and its standout pitcher Cyra Wentz, are capable of taking their teams deep.

The favorite in Division III is Estrella Foothills, the 3A champ last year and currently sporting a 31-0 record.  Estrella Foothills is led by pitcher Kasia Smith, who also swings a potent bat. Estrella Foothills is the top seed in D-III, a single-elimination format. Winslow, the No. 3 seed and runner-up to EFH last year, hopes to get a shot at EFH if both reach the semis. Top-seed Payson and No. 4 Benson are bonafide contenders. Benson has faced Estrella Foothils twice this season in invitationals and lost both times. Two other teams to keep an eye on are Empire and Blue Ridge, who are competing in the same half of the bracket as Winslow and EFH.

Over in Division IV, Pusch Ridge is the top seed and runner-up in 2A in 2011. Last year's 2A champ Benson has moved up ito Division III. Pusch Ridge finished the season with a surprising loss to Desert Christian as its only blemish. The other top seeds are No. 2 seed San Manuel, No. 3 Arizona Lutheran and No. 4 Northwest Christian.