Seedings Powered by
Frequently Asked Questions
To address the questions received by the AIA, in working with MaxPreps, the following FAQs have been created to assist in providing more information regarding the formula that determines the AIA Seedings powered by MaxPreps:
A simple answer for how the algorithm works?
The algorithm is not predictive and analyzes past games as opposed to projecting an outcome. After analyzing thousands of games nationwide, the algorithm places teams in order.
What is the formula for the AIA Seedings powered by MaxPreps?
The AIA Seedings is based on the algorithm derived utilizing statistical mathematics presented in a research paper titled: “A Solution to the Unequal Strength of Schedule Problem” by Roy Bethel in 2005 and developed by MaxPreps for nationwide high school sports. The link to the paper and algorithm can be found here: http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/papers/BethelRank.pdf. The data which is not available for direct release is the hundreds of thousands of game results nationwide processed by the algorithm to produce each team’s rating value.
Are there any improvements made to the algorithm that was published?
Yes. They are virtually negligible on the final ratings. For example, the algorithm doesn’t deal with something like a tie. However, everyone agrees if a game ends in a tie that we can assert the teams are very similar in strength. So we added an additional loop in the algorithm where a tie tells us that those two teams are very similar in strength.
What are the basics of the formula?
The formula utilizes results from all games nationwide as opposed to only leveraging results from opponents and the opponents of opponents. All teams start on a level playing field. No values are given for division, enrollment, returning starters, previous record, etc. Forfeits are skipped as they do not provide additional results occurring “on the field”.
How is the formula different than a RPI?
An RPI chooses an arbitrary percentage value for games against opponents and opponent’s opponents. The value selected is not important, but the point is that an RPI only measures two layers deep; whereas, MaxPreps can go infinitely deep. This allows MaxPreps to better seed high school sports, where talent levels are vastly different from top to bottom, as opposed to an RPI produced by a formula used commonly where talent levels are much closer between all teams (such as collegiate and professional sports).
What is the difference between the rankings seen on MaxPreps.com and the seedings on AIA365.com?
The rankings seen on MaxPreps are predictive in nature as opposed to the “retrodictive” formula powering the AIA Seedings which looks at games that occurred in the past. While both process results from thousands of games nationwide, the “retrodictive” formula was determined to be more appropriate for post-season seedings.
What is the rating value?
The rating value translates into each team’s rank and eventual seed.
Will defeating teams with winning records instead of losing records help improve a team’s rating?
Not necessarily. Defeating a team with a losing record that happens to compete in a strong schedule can be more beneficial than defeating a team with a winning record playing a weak schedule.
What is the Average Opponent Rating?
The Average Opponent Rating is the cumulative average of all of the opponents’ ratings.
How does the Average Opponent Rating affect seedings?
There is no mathematical link between the Average Opponent Rating and each team's rating. Typically teams with a strong AOR will earn higher ratings than a team with a similar record but much weaker AOR; however, teams with a weak AOR can still be highly rated if they have key victories over highly rated opponents or by winning consistently over the course of the season.
Why was there a change in the name of the “Strength” value to “Average Opponent Rating” (AOR)
This was done to give a better description of what the value represents.
Why do forfeits not count in the seedings?
Forfeits are unfortunate, however there’s no context for a forfeit to indicate what a team would actually do on the field. A misconception is that not counting forfeits incentivizes teams to dodge higher ranked teams. The reality is if a lower ranked team intentionally forfeits a game against a higher ranked team, that team is most likely hurting its rating by losing the opportunity to improve their strength of schedule, regardless of the game result. This will usually hurt their rating over the course of the season.
If a team lost a game, and then forfeits, does the winning team not get the win?
No. If a game had been played, and the losing team has to forfeit that game, then the winning team would not be penalized and that win would still be included in the rankings.
Do invitational tournaments count in the algorithm?
Invitational tournaments are not a part of the algorithm as recommended by the Power Rankings Committee and approved by the AIA Executive Board.
Is running up the score, margin of victory, or score differential a factor?
Running up the score, margin of victory, or score differential is not a part of the algorithm. In no way would the AIA Executive Board or the Power Rankings Committee support unsportsmanlike behavior in terms of running up the score on an opponent for the benefit of a school’s seeding.
Can the number of games played be the difference in seedings if the schedules are uneven and some teams have played more than others?
Additional games will not arbitrarily help a team’s ranking because the formula does not automatically award points for each game or victory. Instead, all teams are measured against each other via infinite layers of data and opponents. For example, this is why a team with a 25W-5L record in a lower division will commonly be rated lower than a 17W-5L team from a higher division. (Remember divisions are not included in the algorithm, but only used in this example to help provide context).
Is the same algorithm being used for the same sports, for example, football and volleyball?
Yes the algorithm is exactly the same.
Are seedings calculated differently if you play a team in a higher or lower division?
No. No arbitrary value is automatically awarded for playing higher divisions or deducted for playing lower divisions.
In any given week, how can Team A defeat a low ranked opponent and jump Team B, who defeated a higher ranked opponent?
The ratings are not calculated as a week-to-week running total. Therefore, it’s inaccurate to look at results in mathematical isolation from previous weeks. Each week, the algorithm re-analyzes every nationwide result, not just the last games played.
Why are out-of-state games included given that AIA teams play a very small percentage of out-of-state games?
The more data you have the better able the formula is at finding the best result. Out of state games are like any other game in that they provide more information.
How are out-of-state games factored in?
Out of state games are treated the same way that all games are.
Advice to coaches planning a schedule?
Continue to schedule as normal, knowing that it’s equally important to win as well as to play tough teams. There is no way to "game the system" by scheduling a few stronger or weaker opponents. Again, this is because the algorithm utilizes tens of thousands of results to connect all teams to each other.